Estimating nutrient releases from agriculture in China: An extended substance flow analysis framework and a modeling tool Original Research Article

Agriculture related pollution has attracted the attention of policy makers as well as scientists in China as its contribution to water impairment has increased, and quantitative information at the national and regional levels is being sought to support decision making. However, traditional approaches are either time-consuming, expensive (e.g. national surveys) or oversimplified and crude (e.g. coefficient methods). Therefore, this study proposed an extended substance flow analysis (SFA) framework to estimate nutrient releases from agricultural and rural activities in China by depicting the nutrient flows in Chinese agro-ecosystems. The six-step process proposed herein includes: (a) system definition; (b) model development; (c) database development; (d) model validation; (e) results interpretation; and (f) uncertainty analysis. The developed Eubolism (Elementary Unit based nutrient Balance mOdeLIng in agro-ecoSysteM) model combined a nutrient balance module with an emission inventory module to quantify the nutrient flows in the agro-ecosystem. The model was validated and then applied to estimate the total agricultural nutrient loads, identify the contribution of different agricultural and rural activities and different land use types to the total loads, and analyze the spatial pattern of agricultural nutrient emissions in China. These results could provide an entire picture of agricultural pollution at the national level and be used to support policy making. Furthermore, uncertainties associated with the structure of the elementary units, spatial resolution, and inputs/parameters were also analyzed to evaluate the robustness of the model results.