Title of article :
Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity Original Research Article
Author/Authors :
C. Tisseuil، نويسنده , , M. Vrac، نويسنده , , G. Grenouillet، نويسنده , , A.J Wade، نويسنده , , M. Gevrey، نويسنده , , T. Oberdorff، نويسنده , , J.-B. Grodwohl، نويسنده , , J. Moreau & S. Lek، نويسنده ,
Issue Information :
دوهفته نامه با شماره پیاپی سال 2012
Pages :
9
From page :
193
To page :
201
Abstract :
To understand the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change, it is important to determine how multiple, related environmental factors, such as near-surface air temperature and river flow, will change during the next century. This study develops a novel methodology that combines statistical downscaling and fish species distribution modeling, to enhance the understanding of how global climate changes (modeled by global climate models at coarse-resolution) may affect local riverine fish diversity. The novelty of this work is the downscaling framework developed to provide suitable future projections of fish habitat descriptors, focusing particularly on the hydrology which has been rarely considered in previous studies. The proposed modeling framework was developed and tested in a major European system, the Adour–Garonne river basin (SW France, 116,000 km2), which covers distinct hydrological and thermal regions from the Pyrenees to the Atlantic coast. The simulations suggest that, by 2100, the mean annual stream flow is projected to decrease by approximately 15% and temperature to increase by approximately 1.2 °C, on average. As consequence, the majority of cool- and warm-water fish species is projected to expand their geographical range within the basin while the few cold-water species will experience a reduction in their distribution. The limitations and potential benefits of the proposed modeling approach are discussed.
Keywords :
Stream fish , Niche-based model , climate , Downscaling , Global change , Hydrology
Journal title :
Science of the Total Environment
Serial Year :
2012
Journal title :
Science of the Total Environment
Record number :
988313
Link To Document :
بازگشت