Assessment of the effects of the Japanese shift to lead-free solders and its impact on material substitution and environmental emissions by a dynamic material flow analysis Original Research Article

Lead-free electronics has been extensively studied, whereas their adoption by society and their impact on material substitution and environmental emissions are not well understood. Through a material flow analysis (MFA), this paper explores the life cycle flows for solder-containing metals in Japan, which leads the world in the shift to lead-free solders in electronics. The results indicate that the shift has been progressing rapidly for a decade, and that substitutes for lead in solders, which include silver and copper, are still in the early life cycle stages. The results also show, however, that such substitution slows down during the late life cycle stages owing to long electronic product lifespans. This deceleration of material substitution in the solder life cycle may not only preclude a reduction in lead emissions to air but also accelerate an increase in silver emissions to air and water. As an effective measure against ongoing lead emissions, our scenario analysis suggests an aggressive recycling program for printed circuit boards that utilizes an existing recycling scheme.