چكيده لاتين :
In conventional PERT ana lyses, using beta distribution as underlying
distribut ion for activity durations, the mean and variance of activ ity durations are
estim ated using optimistic , pessimistic, and probable estimates give n by an expert.
In order to impro ve these estimates, vario us methods have been proposed. In this
paper, we propose a new model, whose estimate of the mean of activity durations is
more acc urate than original PERT estimates and its modifications. In addition, the
proposed method does not rely on any assumptions on beta parameters.
