چكيده لاتين :
Background: The status of measles elimination is best summarized
by evaluation of the effective reproduction number R;
maintaining R < 1 is necessary and sufficient to achieve elimination.
In the present article, we estimated reproduction number
R for the measle s data reported for the Fars province of
Iran in 2001-03.
Methods: We estimated R by using sizes and durations of
chains of measles transmission and the proportion of cases
imported, when offspring distribution is either Poisson or
geometric. In each case, we calculated the profile 95% confidence
intervals. These comprised 575 cases, forming 191
chains of transmission, of which 79 had > 1 case. 128 cases
were clas sified as importations.
Results: The results using the Pois son and geometric distribution
for offspring and the proportion of cases imported differed
s lightly, but all 3 methods gave an R < 1. The results
were not sensitive to the minimum s ize and duration of outbreak
cons idered, as long as single-case chains were excluded,
or to exclusion of cha ins without a known important source.
Conclusion: These results demonstrated that susceptibility to
measle s was beneath the epidemic threshold and that endemic
transmission was eliminated.
