مرکز منطقه ای اطلاع رساني علوم و فناوري -

چكيده لاتين :

Indices usually considered to measure uncertainty of parameters and optimality of reservoir operation rules are expected value or variance of the slacks in supplying water demands. However, indices like reliability range to average ratio of supplied water as well as the average ratio of allowed river flow to released water for planning horizon will lead to a better description of uncertainty measurement. Considering this index within the objective function will lead to a problem with discrete non-linear objective function that minimizing it will show a better improvement in reservoir operation planning which is the least sensitive to the uncertainty of inflows. In this research, this problem is formulated as optimized-simulation, while considering stochasticity of inflows by scenarios, which is optimized by differential evolutionary algorithm, combined with scenario optimization. Inflow scenarios show the uncertainty band of inputs which is narrowed in outputs, like, demand supplying through optimal reservoir operation planning and assessed by the coefficient of variation index defined above. Application of this problem formulation and solution in a real world case Zayandehrud Dam in Isfahan, Iran, shows the robustness and reliability of the operation rules in comparison with actual operation within the years 1975 to 1994.