استخدام نماذج السلاسل الزمنية للتنبو باعداد الاطفال المصابين بالتهابات المجاري التنفسية في محافظة السليمانية

The main objective of this paper is modeling the time evolution of the number of children with upper respiratory tract infection (URT) in the governorates of Sulaymaniyah and relying on monthly data for the period (2005-2011). The results of the analysis showed that the appropriate model is integrated moving average model of second-class ARIMA (0,1,2), and based on this model we can predicted to prepare children with upper respiratory tract infection (URT) per month and for the next five years and has been a consistent predictive values with the values of the original series which shows the efficiency of the model