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The well-known Verhulst-Pearl model in ecology, ( ( )) ( )N N t N t = where N(t) denotes current population size, has a solution which may be written in the form of a logistic cumulative distribution function (cdf). It is widely used to describe population growth curves (Renshaw, 1991). An alternative model )())(( tNtFN = where F(t) is the integral of N(s) from 0 to t, was recently proposed by Kindlmann (1985) and solved analytically by Prajneshu (1998). The solution to this model was written in the form of a logistic probability density function (pdf) by Matis et al. (2009). The model has been previously fitted only to aphid data. We illustrate this pdf solution by fitting it to data on the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar), a harmful insect which defoliates forests, from Latakia, Syria. The logistic pdf solution fits this gypsy moth data very well, which provides a mechanism for the statistical analysis of moth count data. Consequently, effective control strategies for gypsy moths can be developed with the objective of avoiding forest defoliation in Latakia. This successful fitting also suggests investigations using the model to describe population growth curves of other insect species.

Logistic Growth Model , Cumulative Growth Model , Logistic Probability Density Function , Gypsy Moth

2010

مجله جامعه دمشق للعلوم الاساسيه

مجله جامعه دمشق للعلوم الاساسيه