تطور موشرات النقل في الموسسة العامة للخطوط الحديدية السورية 1980-2004 و صياغة نموذج رياضي للتنبؤ المستقبلي بحجوم نقل البضائع

The rail transportation has proved that it has many specifications and advantages which make it number one internationally, because it's environment-friendly, and provides traveling comfort, flexibility of movement, safety and comfort during journeys, let alone its ability to transport a large number of passengers and huge volumes of freight at high speed. We present in this paper an analytical study of the transportation references development in the General Establishment of Syrian Railways, during 1980-2004 by discussing the status of towed and towing equipment, and the condition of the network. Then, we define some reasons for low performance averages in the Establishment. The paper also deals with a statistical analytical study of freight volumes during 1987-2005 by using a multiplication model of the time series; so we find a mathematical model explaining the possibility prediction of future freight volumes. A set of proposals and recommendations have been put forward to help develop and raise the efficiency performance of the General Establishment of Syrian railways.