الاتجاه العام لاسعار الاسهم المدرجة في سوق دمشق للاوراق المالية وبناء نموذج للتنبو بها دراسة تطبيقية على اسهم بنك التجارة والتمويل الدولي باستخدام نماذج اريما ونماذج الانحدار للسلاسل الزمنية

This research aims to identify the Genral Trend of prices movements of stocks of IBTF bank listed in Damascus Securities Exchange (DSE) during the period starting from the beginning of Damascus Stock Exchange in March 2009 until the end of February 2011, in order to construct a model helping to predict the future prices of the stock in the short term. Using regression models for time series and ARIMA models, the reseach found that there is an incresing trend in stock prices during this period, and has also concluded that the best model to predict future stock prices is the regression model of the third degree and ARIMA (2,0,1), based on several indicators to test the quality of the model in question without taking into account the emergency and seasonal changes.