آزمون تطبيقي توان داده‏هايحسابداري در پيش بيني جريان نقد عملياتي آتي

Comparative Test the Accounting Data to Predict Future Operating Cash Flow Manufacturing Companies Listed in Tehran Stock Exchange

هدف اصلي اين تحقيق، بررسي توان اقلام تعهدي و جريان نقد جاري در پيش بيني جريان وجوه نقد عملياتي آتي شركت هاي پذيرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در بازه زماني 1392-1388 است. براي اين منظور با استفاده از روش هدفمند تعداد 115 شركت به عنوان نمونه انتخاب گرديده است. اين پژوهش ازنوع توصيفي – همبستگي بوده و داده هاي مورد استفاده در اين پژوهش از نوع داده هاي تابلويي است. براي آزمون فرضيه ها از مدل رگرسيون و براي انتخاب مناسب ترين مدل از ميان داده هاي تابلويي از آزمون چاو و هاسمن استفاده گرديد.يافته هاي پژوهش نشان مي دهد كه سود عملياتي جاري و جريان وجه نقد عملياتي دوره جاري به صورت انفراي در پيش بيني جريان وجه نقد عملياتي آتي سودمند است؛ اما تفكيك سود عملياتي جاري به دو بخش نقدي و تعهدي بهتر مي تواند جريان وجه نقد عملياتي آتي را پيش بيني كند.

This study examines the current accruals and cash flow forecasts of future operating cash flow deals. The population in this study are listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange With the elimination of the use of systematic sampling of 115 companies was selected from among them. The first hypothesis is being investigated by the current operating profit to operating cash flow to predict the future. The second hypothesis is that the research : using current operating cash flow Operating cash flow in the future can be predicted . The third research hypothesis is that the taxonomy of current operating profit to operating cash flow and accrual components of the current operating profit ability to predict future operating cash flow increases. Lymr f test was determined using a regression model for the use of the appropriate panel The Hausman test showed that using the random effects model is appropriate panel . The dependent variable was measured in the normal poll .Jark test results - to show that the distribution of the dependent variable is not normal . To normalize the data was used by Johnson . Then Watson - dorbin test showed that the model errors are correlated in all three hypotheses . To solve your problem using the correlation of a variable delay , and we resolve the problem of solidarity . After running the model with random effect panel regression using data from normal and autocorrelation problem after research hypotheses were confirmed.