Modeling and Forecasting Mortality Rate for Rasht Population

Over the past decades, a number of approaches have been applied for forecasting mortality. Lee and Carter [1] published a new method for long-run forecast of the level and age pattern of mortality. Many authors welcomed this method, and extended it through a wider class of generalized parametric and nonlinear model. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of the classic Lee-Carter model and two of the main extensions of the model known as age-cohort (AC) model and age-period-cohort (M) model. We applied these three models on Rasht mortality in order to find the best model. A suitable ARIMA process is also used to forecast future Rasht morality rate by extrapolation.