چكيده فارسي :
در ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺳﻪ ﻣﺪل ﮔﺮدش ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ )MPI-ESM-MR ،MPI-ESM-LR و NorESM1-M( ﺗﺤﺖ دو ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي اﻧﺘﺸﺎر )RCP4.5 و RCP8.5( ﺑﺮاي دوره 2039-2069 در دو اﯾﺴﺘﮕﺎه ﮐﺮﻣﺎﻧﺸﺎه و ﺗﺒﺮﯾﺰ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. رﺷﺪ و ﻧﻤﻮ ﻧﺨﻮد ﺑﺎ اﺳﺘﻔﺎده از ﻣﺪل SSM-Chickpea ﺷﺒﯿﻪ ﺳﺎزي ﺷﺪ ﭘﻨﺞ ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ. ﮐﺸﺖ ﺷﺎﻣﻞ 20 آذر ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﮐﺸﺖ اﻧﺘﻈﺎري، 15 اﺳﻔﻨﺪ، 30 اﺳﻔﻨﺪ، 15 ﻓﺮوردﯾﻦ و اردﯾﺒﻬﺸﺖ ﺑﻪ1 ﻋﻨﻮان راﻫﮑﺎر ﺳﺎزﮔﺎري ﺑﻪ اﺛﺮات اﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯽ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ در ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ. ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮر ﮐﻠﯽ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد داﻧﻪ ﻧﺨﻮد در دوره ﭘﺎﯾﻪ در ﺗﻤﺎﻣﯽ ﺗﺎرﯾﺦﻫ ﺎي ﮐﺸﺖ در ﺗﺒﺮﯾﺰ 131 درﺻﺪ ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ از ﮐﺮﻣﺎﻧﺸﺎه ﺑﻮد. دﻻﯾﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮ در ﺗﺒﺮﯾﺰ ﺑﺮﺗﺮي ﺷﺎﺧﺺ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺑﺮگ و ﻃﻮل ﻓﺼﻞ رﺷﺪ ﺑﻮد. ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد داﻧﻪ ﻫﺮ دو ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ در دوره ﭘﺎﯾﻪ در ﮐﺸﺖ اﻧﺘﻈﺎري ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺗﺎرﯾﺦﻫ ﺎي ﮐﺸﺖ 15 اﺳﻔﻨﺪ، 30 اﺳﻔﻨﺪ، 15 ﻓﺮوردﯾﻦ و اردﯾﺒﻬﺸﺖ ﺑﻪ1 ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ 13/51، 22/30، 31/94و 46/86 درﺻﺪ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﯾﺎﻓﺖ. ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮر ﻣﯿﺎﻧﮕﯿﻦ )ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎي ﮔﺮدش ﻋﻤﻮﻣﯽ، ﺳﻨﺎرﯾﻮﻫﺎي اﻧﺘﺸﺎر و ﻣﻨﺎﻃ(ﻖ در ﺷﺮاﯾﻂ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻗﻠﯿﻢ در ﻣﻘﺎﯾﺴﻪ ﺑﺎ دوره ﭘﺎﯾﻪ، ﮐﺸﺖ اﻧﺘﻈﺎري ﺑﯿﺸﺘﺮﯾﻦ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ )24/93 درﺻ(ﺪ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد را ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ ﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﺖ داﺷﺖ. ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﺑﻬﺘﺮ دوره رﺷﺪي ﮔﯿﺎه ﺑﺎ ﻓﺼﻞ رﺷﺪ، ﮐﺎﻫﺶ اﺛﺮات ﻣﻨﻔﯽ دﻣﺎﻫﺎي ﺑﺎﻻ ﺑﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﮑﺮد داﻧﻪ ﺑﺨﺼﻮص در ﻃﻮل ﭘﺮ ﺷﺪن داﻧﻪ و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﯿﻦ اﻓﺰاﯾﺶ ﮐﺎراﯾﯽ ﺗﻌﺮق ﺑﻪ دﻟﯿﻞ دﻣﺎﻫﺎي ﭘﺎﯾﯿﻦ ﺗﺮ در ﻃﯽ ﻣﺮاﺣﻞ رﺷﺪ و ﻓﺮار از ﺗﻨﺶ ﺧﺸﮑﯽ اﻧﺘﻬﺎي ﻓﺼﻞ دﻻﯾﻞ ﺑﺮﺗﺮي ﮐﺸﺖ اﻧﺘﻈﺎري ﻧﺨﻮد دﯾﻢ ﻧﺴﺒﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﯾﺮ ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ ﻫﺎي ﮐﺸﺖ ﺑﻮد .
چكيده لاتين :
In the present study, three general circulation models (MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-MR and NorESM1)
were used under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios for the future of 2039–2069 in Kermanshah
and Tabriz locations. The SSM-Chickpea model was employed to simulate the growth and
development of chickpea. Five sowing dates including 21 December (dormant seeding), 6 March, 21
March, 4 April and 21 April were considered as an adaptation strategy to possible impacts of climate
change. Overall, averaged grain yield at all sowing dates in Tabriz was 131% more than Kermanshah
in the baseline. High grain yield in Tabriz compared with Kermanshah can be attributed to more leaf
area index and length of growing season. Averaged grain yield at dormant seeding was 13.51, 22.30,
31.94 and 46.86% higher compared to 6 March, 21 March, 4 April and 21 April, respectively in both
locations at the baseline. On average (GCMs, scenarios and locations) in future climate change
compared with baseline, dormant seeding had the highest grain yield (24.93%) than other sowing
dates. The reasons for superiority of dormant seeding of chickpea compared to other sowing dates
was due to matching of crop growth period with rainfall, reduction in negative effects of high
temperatures on grain yield especially during grain filling, increasing transpiration efficiency due to
lower temperatures over the growing season and escaping terminal drought stress at end of growing
season.
