كليدواژه :
پويايي سيستم , تكانه , تاب اوري , كشاورزي
چكيده فارسي :
اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﻳﺮان ﺑﺎ تكانه هاي ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮﻧﻲ ﻣﻮاﺟـﻪ اﺳـﺖ. تكانه ها مي تواند شامل نوسانات نرخ ارز، تحريم، تورم، اقتصاد جهاني تغييرات آب وهوايي مانند خشكسالي و حوادث غيرمنتظره مانند كرونا مي باشد. اﻳـﻦ تكانه ها ﺑـﻪ ﻣﻴـﺰان زﻳﺎدي رﻳﺸﻪ در ﻧﺎﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﺑﻮدن ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﻛﺴﺐ و ﻛﺎر دارﻧﺪ. ﺑﺎ توجه به اهميت مقابله با تكانه ها، اهميت موضوع تاب آوري مطرح مي شود. ﻭﻗﻮﻉ ﺑﻼﻳﺎي ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ، رﻛﻮد ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎدي، آﺷﻔﺘﮕﻲﻫﺎي ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻭ دﻳﮕﺮ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﺧﺎﺭﺟﻲ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻲ اﺛﺮ ﻣﻲﮔﺬارد، ﻣﺤﻘﻘﺎن ﺷﺮوع ﺑﻪ ﺟﺴﺘﺠﻮي ﻣﻔﺎﻫﻴﻢ و ﻣﻌﻴﺎرﻫﺎيي ﺑﺮاي ارزﻳﺎبي آﺳﻴﺐ ﭘﺬﻳﺮي و تاب آوري ﻧﻈﺎم ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻛﺮدﻧﺪ ﺍﮔﺮ ﭼﻪ ﻣﻔﻬﻮم تاب آوري اوﻟﻴﻦ ﺑﺎر در ﻋﻠﻮم و ﻣﻬﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﻣﺼﺎﻟﺢ ﺍﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ، اﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ از آن در زﻣﻴﻨﻪﻫﺎي ﻣﺤﻴﻂ زﻳﺴﺖ، ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺑﺤﺮان و ﻋﻠﻮم اﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﻲ ﻣﺎﻧﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺳﺎزﻣﺎﻧﻲ و روانشناسيي و اﻗﺘﺼﺎد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﺷﺪ. ﺗﺎب آوري اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻳﻚ ﻛﺸﻮر، ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ، ﺑﺨﺶ ﺍﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و ﻳﺎ ﻫﺮ ﻧﻮع دﻳﮕﺮي از ﻧﻈﺎم اقتصادي، ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان توانايي آن ﻧﻈﺎم اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺮاي ﺣﻔﻆ ﻳﻚ وﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد ﻛﻪ ﻣﻌﻤﻮﻻ ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮﺍن وﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﺗﻌﺎدل ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﻣﻲﺷﻮد ﻳﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺮﮔﺸﺖ ﺳﺮﻳﻊ ﺑﻪ ﺣﺎﻟﺖ اوﻟﻴﻪ، ﺑﻌﺪ از ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ از تكانه ﺧﺎرﺟﻲ ﻣﻄﺮح ﻣﻲﺷﻮد. اصطلاح كسب وكار كشاورزي اغلب براي رساندن يك ديدگاه به هم پيوسته از كشاورزي و فعاليت هاي مربوط به كسب وكار، كه در توليد و توزيع مواد غذايي مشاركت دارند، استفاده مي شود. كسب وكار كشاورزي نشان دهنده فعاليت هاي كسب وكار دسته جمعي از مزرعه تا سفره است. در اين تحقيق ضمن ارايه يك مدل تجربي پويايي سيستم به دو دسته مطالعات داخلي و خارجي با تاكيد بر مدلسازي پويايي سيستم مي پردازد. در بخش مطالعات داخلي در حوزه اثر تكانه ها بر اقتصاد و تاب آوري و در بخش مطالعات خارجي نيز به مطالعاتي در حوزه تاب آوري و بيماري همه گير كوييد-19 به عنوان تكانه غيراقتصادي اشاره شده است.با توجه به مطالعات انجام شده، برخي از مطالعات اثر تكانه ها بر بهره وري، تورم، تكانه نفتي و تحريم را بر اقتصاد مورد مطالعه قرار دادند. همچنين برخي از مطالعات تاب آوري اقتصادي و بنگاه هاي كشاورزي را در برابر تكانه ها مورد بررسي قرار دادند.. برخي ديگر از مطالعات به بررسي اثر كوييد19 بر كسب وكارهاي كشاورزي و بر اهداف توسعه پايدار پرداختند. در نهايت اهميت اين مطالعه از آن جهت مي باشد كه موضوع تاب آوري كسب وكارهاي واحدهاي كشاورزي در برابر تكانه ها با روش پويايي سيستم مدنظر مي باشد كه ساير مطالعات به آن اشاره اي داشته اند.
چكيده لاتين :
Iran s economy is facing various shocks. Impulses can include exchange rate fluctuations, embargo, and inflation, and global economy, climate changes such as drought and unexpected events such as Corona. These impulses are largely rooted in the inappropriateness of the business environment. Considering the importance of dealing with impulses, the importance of resilience is brought up. The occurrence of natural disasters, economic stagnation, political disturbances, and other external factors that affect the global economy, researchers have begun to search for concepts and criteria for assessing vulnerability and suffering. They used different systems, although the concept of resilience was used for the first time in materials science and engineering. But after that, it was used in environmental, crisis management and social sciences such as organizational management, psychology and economics. The economic resilience of a country, region, economic sector or any other type of economic system is defined as the ability of that economic system to maintain an existing situation, which is usually known as a state of equilibrium. Or too quickly return to the initial state, after being under the influence of the decision taking from the external impulse is suggested. The term agribusiness is often used to convey an interconnected view of agriculture and related business activities involved in the production and distribution of food. Agricultural business represents collective business activities from farm to table. In this research, while presenting an empirical model of system dynamics, it deals with two categories of internal and external studies with emphasis on system dynamics modeling. In the internal studies section, in the field of impact of impulses on the economy and resilience, and in the external studies section, studies in the field of resilience and the Covid-19 pandemic as a non-economic impulse have been mentioned. According to the studies, some studied the effect of shocks on productivity, inflation, oil shock and embargo on the economy. Also, some studies examined economic resilience and agricultural enterprises against shocks.. Some other studies examined the effect of Covid-19 on agricultural businesses and sustainable development goals. Finally, the importance of this study is due to the fact that the business resilience of agricultural units against shocks is considered with the system dynamics method, which other studies have mentioned.
