ESTIMATION OF ECONOMIC LOSSES DUE TO EARTHQUAKE IN LIFELINE SYSTEMS

In this research, we develop a linear relationship between seismic time-history parameters and earthquake losses to obtain a model that is able to estimate economic losses of lifeline systems including transportation, communication, potable water and waste water, natural gas systems and electric power networks. We considered economic losses of lifeline systems as a dependent variable and seismic parameters as independent variables. Stepwise multiple linear regressions were used to create a linear equation between the monetary value of losses and the seismic parameters of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) and Peak Ground Displacement (PGD) at various earthquakes. Usually earthquake losses are not limited to physical losses but possible contain very widespread dimensions, example loss of output because of generate abeyance, reduction of consumption because of diminish social activities, etc. Losses linked with effects would be very huge and vaster than those counted just through physical damages. The method is used in current research is Input-Output (I-O) effect analysis. I-O table is a compendium accounting of all purchases and sales across components in a given zone. In this analysis, Iran is considered as a region. Thus, we use Iran’s input-output table, the indirect losses due to damage of lifeline systems in past earthquakes of Iran evaluated by the inter-industry relation.