كليدواژه :
Vulnerability , Seismic loss , exposure , Uncertainty
چكيده فارسي :
Predicting the likely consequences of an earthquake to a nation, a city or an individual facility is
generally covered by the scientific field of earthquake loss estimation (ELE). Traditionally, ELE studies have
been conducted empirically (e.g. Risk-EU approach) mainly because of a lack of instrumental ground motion
data and the limitations of structural analysis techniques. However, with the advent of nonlinear structural
analysis tools (e.g. the nonlinear static pushover analysis) and the introduction of Capacity Spectrum
Methodologies (CSM), ELE studies have been more and more conducted in an analytical-predictive way.
Analytical ELE studies for a test bed, i.e. a city or a region, require estimates on the expected groundmotion
characteristics including effects of local subsoil conditions, vulnerability of the prevalent building
and infrastructure typologies, as well as exposure of the same. The paper at hand discusses the challenges
and the associated uncertainties that are inherently connected to each of the three components, ways to either
minimize or handle these uncertainties, and how the final results of analytical ELE studies can still be
considered as valuable output given the involved uncertainties. More importantly, the paper will shed light
onto the technical and nontechnical problems and challenges involved during the practical conduct of ELE
studies. These challenges may not only affect the practical conduct of the data collection, but also increase
the uncertainties of collected input and inventory data, and not the least hamper the practical implementation
of results and the initiation of mitigative actions. The paper will thereby relate to various ELE studies and
risk mitigation initiatives that were conducted during past years mainly in developing countries.
