ÖZKAN, Filiz Sakarya Üniversitesi - İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi - Finansal Ekonometri Bölümü, Turkey , TARI, Recep Kocaeli Üniversitesi - İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi - İktisat Bölümü, Turkey

THE ANALYSIS OF THE POST-1980 ELECTORAL PERIODS IN TURKEY FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE THEORY OF POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLES

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In this study, it is examined that whether the Political Business Cycles have an effect on the macroeconomic variables of GDP, money supply and public expenditure during the general elections of six congressmen in the period after 1985 in Turkey. In order to determine the effect of PBC “the traditional opportunistic model” from Nordhaus is used to test the political business cycle (PBC) effect. “The opportunistic model” from Nordhaus is tested through the autoregressive analysis method which is used by Alesina, vd. (1991) in their studies for the OECD countries and industrial countries. When the test results of the Model 1 with only one election dummy variable are examined in order to determine whether there is a PBC effect or not in the election periods. When the obtained results are examined it is observed that the election dummy variable regarding public expenditures and money supply is positive and statistically significant which is appropriate to the PBC theory. By examining each election period independently in the Model II, different results are obtained due to the different conditions of each election period. When these results are generally evaluated it can be stated that the PBC has the most significant effect in the 1987 election whereas it has less significant effects in the 2002 and 2007 elections compared to other election periods.

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Political Business Cycles , Traditional Opportunistic Model , Electoral Economy

Erciyes University Journal Of Economics an‎d Administrative Sciences

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