ANALYSIS OF DISTRIBUTIONS IN GOLD PRICE WITH MARKOV CHAIN: LONG TERM PROBABILITIES

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In the economic environments where high inflation expectations exist, there is a movement towards precious metals in order to avoid risk. Gold, one of the precious metals, is an instantly traded and commonly preferred investment tool. The cyclical and speculative effects make it difficult to forecast gold prices. Study offers an application that supports the existing forecasting methods and leads the decision maker before employing complicated analyses. In this context, it aims at analysing the gold-price-movements in detail and make some evaluations about the structure of price movements by using Markov chain. The period between 2005-2009 is examined, transition probabilities over relative frequency values –by coding price intervals- and Markov chain –through transition probabilities- are calculated. The findings indicate significant results in terms of the transition probabilities between price intervals.

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Gold Market , Price Changes , Markov Chain

Erciyes University Journal Of Economics an‎d Administrative Sciences

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Erciyes University Journal Of Economics an‎d Administrative Sciences