مرکز منطقه ای اطلاع رساني علوم و فناوري - Reforms The Effects of The Energy Market Reforms on Electricity Market: The Case of EUAS and Privileged Companies

Abstract :

The market of electricity energy formed an important step of the policy and implementation of privatization and liberalization beginning on 1980 s and very important laws were put into force about this issue and some important changes about running of the markets were made. However, the matter whether the radical changes collected under the heading “Reforms for Energy Market” are sufficient or not for forming a healthy energy marker is still under discussion. In this study the generation data covering 38 years between 1970 - 2007 about the total electricity generation, electricity generation of Electricity Generation Co. Inc.(EUAS) and privileged companies, an establishment generating electricity, were used and they were made suitable to the ARIMA Model, which will be used during analysis, subjecting these data to some statistical and visual tests. Following this, selecting the best one in the model formed, it was gone to intervention analysis. In this stage, adding the dummy variables to the model, the influence of the reforms was tested. As a conclusion, the available findings about how the reforms have an effect on the electricity generations of the EUAS and privileged companies generating energy were interpreted and it was suggested that it had not a significant and positive effect in the short term.