KESGİNGÖZ, HAYRETTİN Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi - İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi - İktisat Bölümü, Turkey

BUSINESS CYCLES ANALYSIS OF THE TURKISH INDUSTRIAL

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Industrial sector is the most important sector in terms of its forward and backward linkages with other sectors and its contributions to gross domestic product, employment, and export. Therefore, business cycles in industry are crucially important. Most of the empirical analyses of business cycles in the Turkish economy are in a macroeconomic framework. This dissertation makes a contribution to the literature by covering a sub-sector of the economy. This method, we study business cycles in the manufacturing sector in more detail on the basis of output gap measure we developed for the period from 1963 to 2010. According to our findings there are 8 cycles in the manufacturing during the period covered. Average duration of the cycle is 6 years. The shortest cycle lasts 3years 1965–1967,1988–1990,1991–1993 ve 2008–2010),while the longest cycles lasts 10 years(1968–1977,1978–1987ve1998–2007). Kitchin and Juglar’s fluctuations observed in the Turkish industry.

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Business Cycles , Crises , Potantial Output , Industrial Sector

Afyon Kocatepe University Journal Of Economics an‎d Administrative Sciences

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