مرکز منطقه ای اطلاع رساني علوم و فناوري - THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION GDP AND CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS IN TURKEY: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS WITH STRUCTURAL BREAKS

Abstract :

As a result of the industrial revolution, machines in production have begun to be used. With the preference of machines instead of labor in production, serial production replaced the earlier forms of production. This resulted in faster and more production. The rapid increase in production led to industrialization. As a result of industrialization people have settled down, the urbanization process is accelerated. This situation has increased the demand for energy. In addition, there has been an increase in demand for raw materials and energy resources. The increase in the prosperity experienced in the process of industrialization and the increase in the production activities in Turkey as well as all over the world, also caused an increase in demand for energy. In the national and international literature discussing this increase, the relationship between total energy consumption, current account deficit and economic growth is generally considered. The relationship between energy consumption, GDP and Current Account Deficit in Turkey is analyzed in this study using annual data for the period of 1990-2017 unlike other studies. At first Unit Root Test has been conducted and it is determined that the series are stationary in the first difference. Then Gregory-Hansen Cointegration Analysis has been conducted and a long term cointegration hasn’t been found between the series. The relationship between variables were examined through Toda Yamamoto causality analysis. As a result, an unidirectional causality running from Energy Consumption and Current Account Deficit and GDP was observed. A bidirectional causality between energy consumption and Current Account Defict was also observed as a result of the analysis.