Author/Authors :
ARMANERİ, Özgür Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi - Mühendislik Fakültesi - Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü, Turkey , YALÇINKAYA, Özgür Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi - Mühendislik Fakültesi - Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü, Turkey
Title Of Article :
A SIMULATION BASED APPROACH FOR AN INVESTMENT PROJECT EVALUATION UNDER UNCERTAIN AND RISKY ENVIRONMENTS
Abstract :
Under high uncertainty and risky environments, the future estimations related to project proposals cannot be certain and really materialized values. It is inevitable that there exists a deviation or gap between forecasted values and actual values. Thus, project risk level of the proposal should be analyzed in the assessment phase. Simulation based project evaluation approaches enables to make more reliable investment decision since they permits including future uncertainty and risk in analyze process. In addition, many times, project proposals are evaluated with more than one conflicted criteria. The aim of this paper is to present a new approach that accounts for multiple objectives for evaluating risky investment projects and determining projects risk level. With the proposed simulation based optimization approach, necessity values for project parameters are determined to reach the expected profitability of the investment with the minimum initial investment cost. Also, there is an illustrative example given in this study as an application of the proposed approach.
NaturalLanguageKeyword :
Decision making under risk, Investment project evaluation, Simulation , Response surface methodology, Desirability functions.
JournalTitle :
Anadolu University Journal of Science and Technology. A : Applied Sciences and Engineering
