The Analysis Of The General Budget Revenue And Expenditure Forecasts Between 1924-2012: An Econometric Study On Turkey

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In this study, the accuracy of the general budget revenue and expenditure estimates, which are prepared by the Ministry of Finance,for the period 1924-2015 has been examined considering the budget principles of accuracy. For this purpose in the first part give place to the budgeting process in Turkey and literature review. After then, evaluation methods were introduced and the accuracy of estimates was analyzed using the prediction error, Theil’s inequality coefficient, and the rational expectation hypothesis. Since different budgeting systems are in force during the period in question, in the analysis, the period in which each budgeting system is applied has been handled separately. As a result of these analyses, estimations of revenue and initial allowances are underforecasted while the final allowances are overforecasted. Additionally, the final estimation was found to be more succesful and in general the estimates improved over time. According to the rational expectation test results, neither the income nor the expenditure estimates are seen as rational.

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Budget , Public Expenditure , Forecast error , Theil’s inequality coefficient , Rational Expectation

Journal Of Economics an‎d Administrative Sciences

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Journal Of Economics an‎d Administrative Sciences