مرکز منطقه ای اطلاع رساني علوم و فناوري - ÇEKİM MODELİ: TÜRKİYE’NİN İHRACATI ÜZERİNE BİR UYGULAMA

Abstract :

The gravity model takes its name from Newton’s “The Gravity Theory”. According to this theory, the attraction force between two objects is proportional to their masses and inversely proportional to squared distance between them. As the model adopted to international trade, the trade volumes between two countries are proportional to their GDP and inversely proportional to distance between them.In this study, the gravity model was applied to Turkey’s export. The model includes panel data covering time series data from 1994 to 2007 for 46 countries. The explanatory variables are Turkey’s and its partner countries’ GDP, their populations, partner countries capitals distance to Ankara and Custom Union and common border dummies. The dependent variable is Turkey’s export. According to estimation of the model, Turkey’s and partner countries GDP’s coefficients had positive sign and were significant as expected. Both of Turkey’s and partner countries populations coefficients were insignificant. The coefficient of distance variable was significant and had negative sign as expected. Costum Union and common border have not significant effect on the Turkey’s export.