مرکز منطقه ای اطلاع رساني علوم و فناوري - ANALYSIS OF HOUSING DEMAND IN TURKEY: 1970-2011

Abstract :

The main purpose of this study is to put forward the short and long run effects of housing demand in Turkey and to obtain findings directing housing policies. For this purpose, the short and long run effects of housing demand were analysed with cointegration and vekor error correction methods using the annual data of Turkey belonging to period between 1970-2011. The causal relationship between housing demand and explanatory variables such as per capita income, housing price, interest rate, industrialization, employment in agriculture, industry and marital status were also analyzed with Granger causality test base on VECM and bootstrap Granger causality test developed by Hacker-Hatemi-J (2006). As a result of analysis, it was estimated that per capita income, marital status and industrialization have positive effect on housing demand but house price, interest rate and employment in agriculture have negative effect on housing demand. However, income is the highest factor affect the housing demand of Turkey in the long term was determined. It was presented that the second and third factor be effective on housing demand are industrialization and employment in agriculture respectively. As a result of bootstrap analysis, unidirectional causality from per capita income, house price and industrialization to housing demand were determined.