Author/Authors :
ATALAY, Ahmet Atatürk Üniversitesi - Narman Meslek Yüksekokulu - İnşaat Bölümü, Turkey , TORTUM, Ahmet Atatürk Üniversitesi - Mühendislik Fakültesi - İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü, Turkey , GÖKDAĞ, Mahir Atatürk Üniversitesi - Mühendislik Fakültesi - İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü, Turkey
Title Of Article :
Temporal Analysis of Monthly Road Traffic Accidents Occurred in Turkey Between 1977-2006
Abstract :
In this study, modeling with time series analysis was done method by using date of monthly road traffic accidents (RTAs) occurred between1977-2006. According to results of analysis and date in period of this study, it was determined that ARIMA(4,1,4) was the best model. In the study monthly accident number are forecasted by appropriate model for 2006:1-2007:12 periods. Regression curve is drawn by using the estimated and actual number of RTAs and the correlation coefficient (r = 0.9163) were determined. A strong positive relationship was determined between estimated values and actual values. In addition, the success measure of ARIMA(4,1,4) model was identified by calculating value of root mean square errors (RMSE). It was determined that occur up to a traffic accident in December, October and November, at least a traffic accident in February, March and April
NaturalLanguageKeyword :
Road traffic accidents , Temporal analysis , Time series analysis
JournalTitle :
Pamukkale University Journal Of Engineering Sciences
