Author/Authors
AVCI, Muhammet Ali Pamukkale Üniversitesi - İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi - İktisat Bölümü, Turkey , ALTAY, N.Oğuzhan Ege Üniversitesi - İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi - İktisat Bölümü, Turkey
Title Of Article
Determinants of Financial Crises and the Predictability: A Case Study for Turkey
شماره ركورد
44371
Abstract
The aim of this study is to analyze the predictability of financial crises and to determine the leading indicators of these crises in the period of 1990:01-2009:07 for Turkey by using Regression Trees and Markov Regime Switching models. According to the results, in Regression Trees model for predicting financial crises the most significant indicators are; money market pressure index, rate of industrial production to domestic credit, M2/Reserves, inflation, on the other hand in Markov Regime Switching model these indicators are terms of trade, balance of trade, inflation and M2/Reserves. In this context, while the financial crises experienced in Turkey in 1994 and 2001 are successfully predicted, 2008 global financial crisis could not be predicted.
From Page
113
NaturalLanguageKeyword
Financial crisis , predictability , regression trees , markov regime switching
JournalTitle
Ege Academic Review (EAR)
To Page
124
JournalTitle
Ege Academic Review (EAR)
Link To Document