Title :
Asymmetry in energy system uncertainty
Author_Institution :
Univ. of Southern California, Los Alamos, NM, USA
Abstract :
A method of analyzing the long-term growth in uncertainty of a complex system over time is described. The method calls for an iterative application of formal statistical analyses of a computer simulation model. The method was used in a recent case study of the electric utility system in the northwestern US. The author examines whether the uncertainty in electricity demand will change in an asymmetric manner over time. Results from the case study are presented, and the sources of asymmetry are explained. The results show unusual differences in asymmetry between the region as a whole and Bonneville´s portion of the system
Keywords :
digital simulation; iterative methods; large-scale systems; power system analysis computing; statistical analysis; Bonneville Power Administration; complex system; computer simulation model; electric utility system; electricity demand; energy system uncertainty; iterative application; large-scale systems; long-term uncertainty growth; northwestern US; statistical analyses; Application software; Computer simulation; Councils; Investments; Iterative methods; Power generation; Power industry; Power system planning; Statistical analysis; Uncertainty;
Journal_Title :
Systems, Man and Cybernetics, IEEE Transactions on
