Forecasting distribution feeder loads: modeling and application to volt/VAr control

The kVAr and kW loads on typical residential and industrial feeders are modeled on the basis of actual data. Using a regression model, it is shown that the two loads conform. The model permits computation of the power factor and the effective amount of fixed and switched capacitance on the feeders. The load variation is decomposed into three major components, namely a weather-load component, deterministic hourly load variation, and random fluctuations, and a one-step-ahead-feeder kW load forecast model is developed. An application of the regression and the load forecast models to the volt/VAr control problem on distribution systems is demonstrated