A framework for the application of group decision support systems to the problem of planning for catastrophic events

During the last two years the US has endured extensive property damage and loss of life from the Hurricane Hugo and Loma Prieta natural disasters and expended billions of dollars in the aftermath of a major oil spill in Prince William Sound. Ineffective precrisis planning was, according to most observers, a primary factor contributing to the failure of these response efforts. The application of decision analysis methods and decision support tools to the development of a scenario-driven planning process is discussed. The methodology and structured group interactions on which this technology should be based are demonstrated and are discussed in the context of planning for earthquakes and catastrophic oilspills. The improvement of the contingency planning process through the application of group decision support technology could provide a new foundation for the management of the response to catastrophic natural and technological events