A new method for stochastic production simulation in generation system with multiple hydro units

A novel method is presented for calculating loss of load probability, expected energy generation and production cost for units in a generating system with multiple hydro units. The method uses the equivalent load duration curve (ELDC) obtained by convolving the distributions of the original load and the forced outage power loss of all generators. Hydro units are scheduled on the ELDC according to their assigned energy and available capacity. Then the deconvolution procedure is performed to obtain a load duration curve for an equivalent system without hydro units. The expected energy of the thermal units is achieved by convolving the generating units in an economic merit order of loading