Title :
Key success factors for technological entrepreneurs´ R&D projects
Author_Institution :
Joseph L. Rotman Sch. of Manage., Univ. of Toronto, Ont., Canada
Abstract :
The impact of 36 innovation, technology, and market characteristics on the probability that early stage R&D projects will reach the market is examined. Analysis is based on data from 561 R&D projects developed by technological entrepreneurs. Four characteristics stand out as most predictive: expected profitability, technological opportunity, development risk, and appropriability conditions. These predict future commercial success well with an out-of-sample accuracy of 80.9 %. This model performs better than R&D managers´ and venture capital´s (VC´s) forecasts of success and has the potential to be used as a screening tool for early stage R&D investment reviews by, for example, VCs. Implications for both research and practice are discussed.
Keywords :
market research; probability; project management; research and development management; risk analysis; technology management; venture capital; R&D projects; appropriability conditions; commercial success; commercialization probability; development risk; innovation; market characteristics; project evaluation; project screening tool; technological entrepreneurs; technological opportunity; venture capitals; Commercialization; Councils; Investments; Operations research; Predictive models; Profitability; Research and development; Research and development management; Statistical analysis; Technological innovation; Early stage R&D; probability of commercialization; project evaluation; project screening; technological entrepreneurs;
Journal_Title :
Engineering Management, IEEE Transactions on
DOI :
10.1109/TEM.2004.830863
