Satellite Scenarios and Technology for the 1990´s

Commercial satellite communications continues to undergo changes arising not only from advancing technology but also from new service offerings and regulatory activities. As the communications industry grows more competitive, future directions in satellite communications will become more economically than technologically motivated. This paper addresses the future of satellite communications, emphasizing fixed satellite services but also covering maritime mobile and broadcast satellite services. Following a brief recapping of the past, current services are discussed and future services are projected for the above service categories. A projection is made of the economics of satellite communications systems using gateway and varying degrees of distribution of earth stations, for both INTELSAT VI and future multibeam satellites and the TAT-8 fiber-optic undersea cable. After a brief allusion to systems design considerations, the anticipated technology projections towards the year 2000 for satellite communication services (including satellite antennas, transmitters and receivers, and on-board interconnection subsystems) are presented in some detail. Finally, it is concluded that satellite communications will have a major role in this epoch, and widespread use of low-cost customer premise earth station may justify more sophisticated and more expensive spacecraft.