Comparison study of electromagnet and permanent magnet systems for an accelerator using cost-based failure modes and effects analysis

The next generation of particle accelerators will be one-of-a-kind facilities, and to meet their luminosity goals they must have guaranteed availability over their several decade lifetimes. The Next Linear Collider (NLC) is one viable option for a 1 TeV electron-positron linear collider, it has an 85% overall availability goal. We previously showed how a traditional failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) of a SLAC electromagnet leads to reliability-enhancing design changes. Traditional FMEA identifies failure modes with high risk but does not consider the consequences in terms of cost, which could lead to unnecessarily expensive components. We have used a new methodology, "life cost-based FMEA", which measures risk of failure in terms of cost, in order to evaluate and compare two different technologies that might be used for the 8653 NLC magnets: electromagnets or permanent magnets. The availabilities for the two different types of magnet systems have been estimated using empirical data from SLAC\´s accelerator failure database plus expert opinion on permanent magnet failure modes and industry standard failure data. Labor and material costs to repair magnet failures are predicted using a Monte Carlo simulation of all possible magnet failures over a 30-year lifetime. Our goal is to maximize up-time of the NLC through magnet design improvements and the optimal combination of electromagnets and permanent magnets, while reducing magnet.