Real-time Reliability Prediction for a Dynamic System Based on the Hidden Degradation Process Identification

This paper introduces a real-time reliability prediction method for a dynamic system which suffers from a hidden degradation process. The hidden degradation process is firstly identified by use of particle filtering based on measurable outputs of the considered dynamic system. Then the system´s reliability is predicted according to the model of the degradation path. We analyze the identification algorithm mathematically, and validate the effectiveness of this method through computer simulations of a three-vessel water tank. This real-time reliability prediction method is beneficial to the dynamic system´s condition monitoring, and may be further helpful to make a proper predictive maintenance policy for the system.