Title :
Sensitivity of a Bayesian analysis to the prior distribution
Author :
Hill, Stacy D. ; Spall, James C.
Author_Institution :
Appl. Phys. Lab., Johns Hopkins Univ., Laurel, MD, USA
fDate :
2/1/1994 12:00:00 AM
Abstract :
Consider the problem of eliciting and specifying a prior probability distribution for a Bayesian analysis. There will generally be some uncertainty in the choice of prior, especially when there is little information from which to construct such a distribution, or when there are several priors elicited, say, from different experts. It is of interest, then, to characterize the sensitivity of a posterior distribution (or posterior mean) to prior. We characterize this sensitivity in terms of bounds on the difference between posterior distributions corresponding to different priors. Further, we illustrate the results on two distinct problems: a) determining least-informative (vague) priors and b) estimating statistical quantiles for a problem in analyzing projectile accuracy
Keywords :
Bayes methods; sensitivity; Bayesian analysis sensitivity; least-informative priors; posterior distribution; prior probability distribution; projectile accuracy; statistical quantiles estimation; uncertainty; vague priors; Bayesian methods; Distribution functions; Functional analysis; Information analysis; Physics; Probability distribution; Projectiles; Uncertainty;
Journal_Title :
Systems, Man and Cybernetics, IEEE Transactions on