Development of a Community Health Service System Simulation Model

The feasibility of using simulation techniques in community health planning by investigating problems associated with the development of a community health service system simulation model is examined. Two preliminary tasks were completed: a general systems analysis of the community health services and the preparation of a simulation model of one segment of this system. The system is described in terms of needs, demands, and resources. Various factors determine extent of the needs, conversion of the needs into demands, and availability of resources for satisfying the demands. This conceptual framework, the various factors, their significance, and an estimate of the extent of their control by a health planner were derived. A simulation model was developed using this framework and was based on a maternal and infant care program conducted by the North Carolina State Board of Health. The model was verified using data from three different communities within the program. Model processes are described; outputs are discussed; and potential model uses within a planning environment are presented.