Title :
When Supply Meets Demand: The Case of Hourly Spot Electricity Prices
Author :
Boogert, Alexander ; Dupont, Dominique
Author_Institution :
Univ. of London, London
fDate :
5/1/2008 12:00:00 AM
Abstract :
We use a supply-demand framework to model the hourly day-ahead price of electricity (the spot price) based on publicly available information. With the model we can forecast the level and probability of a spike in the spot price defined as the spot price above a certain threshold. Several European countries have recently started publishing day-ahead forecasts of the available supply. This paper shows this forecasted capacity is quite successful in predicting spot price movements 24 h ahead.
Keywords :
power markets; day-ahead forecasts; forecasted capacity; hourly spot electricity prices; publicly available information; supply-demand framework; Available capacity; day-ahead electricity market; price forecasting;
Journal_Title :
Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on
DOI :
10.1109/TPWRS.2008.920731
