A verification method for space weather forecasting models using solar data to predict arrivals of interplanetary shocks at Earth

The ability to predict the arrival of interplanetary shocks near earth is of great interest in space weather because of their relationship to sudden impulses and geomagnetic storms. A number of models have been developed for this purpose. For models to be used in forecasting, it is important to provide verification in the operational environment using standard statistical techniques because this enables the intercomparison of different models. A verification method is described here, comparing the prediction capabilities of four models that use solar observations for input. Three of the models are based on metric Type II radio burst observations, and one uses halo/partial-halo coronal mass ejections. A method of associating solar events with interplanetary shocks is described. The predictions are compared to associated shocks observed at L1 by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. The time period of this study is January 2002-May 2002. Although the data sample is small, the statistical intercomparison of the results of these models is presented as a demonstration of the verification method.