Convince: A Conversational Inference Consolidation Engine

An operational domain-independent decision-aiding system for situation assessment tasks is described. The system elicits the user´s perception of a given situation through a stylized English dialogue and focuses the user´s attention on the issue of highest relevancy. Elicited problems are structured as networks where nodes represent variables and directed links represent causal relationships. The system uses a Bayesian inference procedure which combines causal and diagnostic reasoning using a bidirectional propagation of evidence in the form of belief parameters. Upon completion of the dialogue the system provides a formal structure representing relevant propositions, their interrelations, and their updated belief distributions.