Refining the Urban Dynamics Model: An Approach toward Improving the Specification of City Goals

The economist views the Urban Dynamics model as an economic system in which inputs pass through a black box toward the goal of deriving certain outputs. Forrester apparently opts for a city that is attractive to the middle classes, a goal which is accomplished by eliminating employment and housing opportunities for the lower classes, forcing their immigration to and burden on other unprepared cities. The author presents an improved procedure for the quantitative selection of output statements for the simulation. Suggestions are then made for application to the Forrester model, followed by an example of a specific modeling refinement.