Abstract :
The generation expansion models described in the literature are, in a majority of cases, formulated as deterministic optimization problems. The reliability criteria, if present, are represented as deterministic constraints on the reserve margin or, in some cases, as a loss of load probability (LOLP) criterion. In this paper, two probabilistic reliability criteria are represented. In addition to the LOLP criterion, the probabilistic constraints on real power flows in the transmission lines are introduced. The solution procedures for the resulting chance constrained stochastic programming problems are also discussed. The basic concepts developed in this paper are applied to a small system to demonstrate the influence of power flow constraints on the selection process.
