Title :
Improving forecast accuracy by a segmented rate of change in technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA)
Author :
Dong-Joon Lim ; Anderson, Timothy R.
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Eng. & Technol. Manage., Portland State Univ., Portland, OR, USA
Abstract :
Technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) captures technological advancement from the evolution of the state-of-the-art (SOA) frontier. Within this process, TFDEA combines rates of changes (RoC) from past technologies that have been superseded by superior technologies. However, it was occasionally observed in previous applications that forecasting based on a single aggregated RoC did not consider the unique growth patterns of each technology segment, which resulted in a conservative or aggressive forecasting. This study proposes a procedure to improve the forecasting accuracy by identifying local rates of change for each frontier segment that may represent different product families. This approach is applied to six previously published applications using a rolling origin hold-out sample tests to validate its performance compared to the traditional TFDEA approach. The results indicate that the segmented rate of change approach determines different rates of change for product niches that result in more accurate forecasts.
Keywords :
data envelopment analysis; innovation management; technological forecasting; TFDEA; data envelopment analysis; technological advancement; technology forecasting; technology growth patterns; Accuracy; Benchmark testing; Data envelopment analysis; Predictive models; Semiconductor optical amplifiers; Technology forecasting;
Conference_Titel :
Management of Engineering & Technology (PICMET), 2014 Portland International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Kanazawa