Simulation of Self-Consistent Energy Forecasts

A socioeconomic computer simulation model for the State of Oregon is described. The Oregon State Simulation Model (OSSIM) includes a 37-sector model of electrical energy consumption. Coupling between this model and the OSSIM provides self-consistent scenarios of economic and demographic activity underlying energy consumption. Sample results illustrate differences in future electrical energy consumption in response to various sets of exogenous energy prices. Use of electricity in Oregon appears to be more dependent upon the relative cost of electricity to that of fossil fuels than upon the absolute cost of energy. One of the purposes of this project has been to help state-level policy makers understand the determinants of electricity consumption within a context of changing economic conditions.