A Reliability Analysis Technique for Bulk System Planning

This paper describes a technique for extending probabilistic generation system reliability analysis to include the bulk power supply system. With two-state component models, a net load model and a linear least square error approximation to the a.c. power-flow, classical minimum path concepts are used to develop the idea of Load Dependent Minimum Paths. This is the minimum amount of information required to determine whether any given combination of generation, transmission and load produces acceptable performance.