Uncertainty Considerations in Frequency and Durations Analysis for Radial and Two Interconnected Systems

This paper presents a method for evaluating the effects of uncertainties associated with the parameters of two groups of parallel elements connected in series on the frequency and duration reliability indices of single and two interconnected systems. The presented method overcomes the bulk of difficulties which arise when existing techniques are used. Equations are derived for calculating the mean and variance of the reliability indices under uncertainties in generation, transmission and load parameters of radial and interconnected systems. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the impact of various uncertainties in the system parameters on the resulting indices.