A New Measure of Sensitivity for Social System Simulation Models

A new measure of sensitivity of dynamic simulation models of complex social systems is introduced. The measure helps investigators deal with three of the four principal obstacles that have made systematic sensitivity testing so difficult in the past. To conduct sensitivity analyses with the new measure, the investigator must combine the simulation model under study with an evaluation model designed to generate an overall scalar value to each output pattern of the simulation model. Moreover, the investigator must state precisely the policy issue under dispute. The use of the new measure is illustrated with an examination of the sensitivity of a dynamic simulation model of energy boom towns. The case study employs multiattribute utility measurement models developed for local planners in an energy boom town in New Mexico. Use of the new measure shows the boom-town simulation model to be surprisingly insensitive to changes in key input parameters.