The effect of load uncertainty on unit commitment risk

Author

Zhai, D. ; Breipohl, A.M. ; Lee, F.N. ; Adapa, R.

Author_Institution

Oklahoma Univ., Norman, OK, USA

Volume

9

Issue

1

fYear

1994

fDate

2/1/1994 12:00:00 AM

Firstpage

510

Lastpage

517

Abstract

This paper describes a method for analyzing the effect of load uncertainty on unit commitment risk, which is the probability of having insufficient committed capacity to compensate for unit failures and/or unanticipated load variation. This risk is evaluated using the usual Markov model for unit failures and a Gauss-Markov load model for load uncertainty. A rescheduling policy is essential for stochastic risk evaluation; thus one is described in this paper. The risk and the average operating reserve are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation, and the Monte Carlo simulation is applied to the IEEE-RTS in order to demonstrate the effect of load uncertainty on the risk and on the average amount of required operating reserve. This paper is the first to combine a stochastic load model with the usual Markov unit failure model for unit commitment risk evaluation

Keywords

Markov processes; Monte Carlo methods; digital simulation; load dispatching; power system analysis computing; power system reliability; Gauss-Markov load model; IEEE Reliability Test System; Markov model; Monte Carlo simulation; average operating reserve; insufficient committed capacity; load uncertainty; rescheduling policy; stochastic risk evaluation; unanticipated load variation; unit commitment risk; unit failures compensation; Capacity planning; Costs; Gaussian processes; Load modeling; Power markets; Power system modeling; Risk analysis; Senior members; Stochastic processes; Uncertainty;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Power Systems, IEEE Transactions on

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

0885-8950

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/59.317572

Filename

317572