A bottom-up approach to residential load modeling

A model of electric residential end-use is proposed for establishing the load diagram of an area by a process of synthesis. The model follows a “bottom-up“ approach, allowing construction of the relative load shape of the area, starting from knowledge of its most relevant socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, unitary energy consumption and the load profiles of individual household appliances. Several probability functions have been introduced in order to cover the close relationship existing between the demand of residential customers and the psychological and behavioral factors typical of the household; the model makes frequent use of the latter through a Monte Carlo extraction process. The model has been applied for the simulation of a residential area where field measurements of power demand had been made at 15-minute intervals and a combined mail survey had been conducted to investigate household energy usage. The paper reports the results of a comparison between recorded and predicted load profiles