Solar Particle Events and Self-Organized Criticality: Are Deterministic Predictions of Events Possible?

Author

Xapsos, M.A. ; Stauffer, C. ; Barth, J.L. ; Burke, E.A.

Author_Institution

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD

Volume

53

Issue

4

fYear

2006

Firstpage

1839

Lastpage

1843

Abstract

Evidence is presented that solar particle events are a self-organized critical phenomenon. Using daily and monthly fluences of solar protons measured by the IMP-8 and GOES satellite instrumentation over a 28-year period, long-term correlation of events, fractal characteristics and power function behavior for the density functions of fluence magnitudes and waiting times are demonstrated. The implications are that it is not possible to predict the time of occurrence and magnitude of solar particle events within narrow limits

Keywords

fractals; self-organised criticality; solar cosmic ray particles; solar radiation; GOES; IMP-8; Interplanetary Monitoring Platform-8; density functions; fractal characteristics; geostationary operational environmental satellites; power function distribution; satellite instrumentation; self-organized criticality; solar particle events; solar protons measurement; Density functional theory; Density measurement; Fractals; Instruments; NASA; Observatories; Power measurement; Protons; Satellites; Space technology; Fractal; rescaled range; self-organized criticality; solar particle event;

fLanguage

English

Journal_Title

Nuclear Science, IEEE Transactions on

Publisher

ieee

ISSN

0018-9499

Type

jour

DOI

10.1109/TNS.2006.880576

Filename

1684026